The death of the leader of the Cuban Revolution caused worldwide shock. There was practically not a single medium of communication that did not emphasize it on the planet.
That was not all. The war of discussions on social networks also came. Fidel for the Cubans, Castro for his opponents, caused in his death what he did in life. Two opposing blocks, their supporters, their ‘enemies’.
Do not go so fast. Fidel, with all its symbolism, no longer ruled Cuba. His brother Raúl, and a delicately constructed machinery over more than 50 years will continue to work under the same scheme, for now.
The arrival of Republican Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States will help them. A retrograde and warlike speech, issued by the president-elect, will give the Cuban leadership reasons to issue an alert to the population: the giant ‘Yankee’ comes back to attack us and we have to defend ourselves.
If Barack Obama had stayed a few more years, acting with that conciliatory attitude, it would have helped a possible transition.
Raul Castro will remain a few more years in power, if health allows. Like its successor, several names are already shuffled, among them the current vice-president Miguel Diaz-Canel, supported by the Communist Party, and the son of Raúl, Alejandro Castro, with the favor of the Armed Forces, are the favorites in the quinielas.
The historians Machado Ventura and Ramiro Valdés, the daughter of Raúl Castro, Mariela Castro, or the leader of the party in Havana, Mercedes López Acea, also sound in Cuban circles of power.
Political chess in Havana has already begun, not now, but for several years. So, the symbolism that provokes the death of Fidel perhaps only serves to cover up the real scene behind the curtains.
According to former US intelligence analyst Brian Latell, author of the book After Fidel, “no one will be able to impose on the new regime political policies opposed to this disciplined and unified military leadership.”
The military sector is one of the strongest on the island, not only within the same army, but also in the rest of the other areas of government. It is not logical to think that the ‘men of green’ leave power and accept drastic changes in government.
In the same way there is a concrete and real fact. Although many Cubans suffer from limitations, there are also many who are in no hurry for a change. There is also another reality, the new generations are leaving. The millennia have little desire to remain in Cuba and seek new horizons tired, many of them, that immobility.